2018 Dissertation – The Populist Rebellion & The End To Liberal Europe

2018 Dissertation – The Populist Rebellion & The End To Liberal Europe

The world has recently entered into a newfound period of destabilization. However, unlike previous eras of turmoil where the conflict was between two opposing and anti-thetical forces, this conflict can be characterized as being a Western ideological civil war. The roots of this struggle can be traced back to America’s unipolar moment and the victory of new world order based on the foundations of international liberalism. Recently there has been a counter-reaction to this international norm in the form of a transnational populist-movement. This turn of events has produced aperiod of what Antonio Gramsci called ‘interregnum’: a phase where the old order is dying but the new one cannot yet be born.[1] In this state of affairs, I believe that the rise of the populist nationalist movement can represent two futures for Europe: the return to the twentieth-century authoritarianism or a reassertion of national-liberalism. In approaching this question, I will argue that the liberalism institutionalized during the unipolar era, degraded into a form of authoritarianism. Therefore, the populist neo-nationalist movement is actually a championing of true liberalism via the soft-realist framework of the nation state.

 

In order to argue this thesis, I will employ the methodology of interpreting the current geopolitical discourse by using the prism of political history and international relations theory, while using empirical data where possible. This will be exemplified by analysing the ideological supranational structure of the European Union (EU) as the example of how the dream of liberalism had transformed into the nightmare of a latent authoritarianism and thus indirectly ushered in a new era of European geopolitical affairs. This will be achieved separating this paper into three major sections: Firstly, the ideological analysis of liberalism will be undertaken to demonstrate the intention of the established liberal order. This will be complemented by reviewing how it manifested into reality by investigating the liberalization of Europe. Secondly, I procced with an investigation into how the EU has transformed into an authoritarian form of governance when it was confronted by the multiple crises of the 2008 Eurozone Crisis and the 2011 Mass Immigration. And finally, I will offer an account of populist nationalist responses to liberalism and an assessment of the direction of the European polity.

 

The Age of Liberalism

 

The concept of liberalism has a long history that can be traced back to the intellectualism of the Age of Enlightenment and with the works of Immanuel Kant. He proposed that in order to tame the ‘lawlessness and savagery’ of international affairs and thus usher in perpetual peace, combination of radicalized individual thinking, republicanism there was a need for the constitutionalism and an international contract among states to abolish war.[2] Despite his ideas were never adopted, it did provide the philosophical basis for modern liberalism that saw the creation of US President Woodrow Wilson’s Kantian vision of the League of Nations.[3] It was argued that unfettered national sovereignty needed to be regulated and the duties of national government must be replaced with collective security, compulsory adjudication of disputes, national disarmament, open diplomacy and international colonial accountability.[4]

 

It was not until the American Republic achieved the unipolar moment by defeating their communist counterpart, that a new world order could be realized. As explained by Francis Fukuyama, the defeat of the Soviet Union was a triumphant stage in human history that heralded not so much another era or epoch but the very end of history. Fukuyama claimed the moment as essentially the end-point of the ideological evolution of humanity and by the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the ultimate form of human governance.[5] I assert that it was during this period for those within not only the USA, but the European Western establishment, to take the opportunity to standardize their world under the banner of liberalism.

 

The Three Pillars of the Liberal World Order 

 

Although the geopolitical environment finally became favourable to liberalism, it was now an issue of successfully manifesting the utopian dream into reality. According to Michael Doyle, three ideological pillars must be erected in order to create a liberal order: the domestic people must in agreement with the new international norm and therefore the rotative nature of democracy will not threaten the political class to offer an alternative.[6] By forcing the norm of international human rights, domestic actors will be forced to adopt such values and therefore the idea of nationalism can fade into historical obscurity.[7] And finally, the economic sphere of liberalism will create an interdependent ‘spirit of commerce’ and thus the development of international free trade and therefore  global stability will remain unchallenged.[8] As Doyle stressed, only all three strands of liberal thought must be implemented as no single pillar alone will be sufficient to bring about world peace.[9] I assert that this is the full-spectrum dominance of the sovereign state: the political, the international and the economic. As Thomas Freedman explained, the metaphorical ladder advocates the notion that a nation’s stage of development was irrelevant, being no other credible alternative economics available, it would inevitably adopt neoliberalism. Or in other words: One road. Different speeds. But one road.[10]

 

The first pillar of liberalism can be seen of neoliberal capitalism. It has been characterised by the primary engine of economic growth, low inflation rates and price stability, maintaining a balanced budget, eliminating tariffs, privatizing state-owned industries and utilities, shrinking state bureaucracy and opening domestic industries to foreign ownership.[11]

 

The second pillar saw the narrowing of the political spectrum. Although the democratic process survives, a consensus of the hegemony of liberalism is formed among the political elite. As Richard Heffernan explains, once a dominant set of ideas are established among politicians and policymakers, a new framework to conduct their debate is constructed. While this framework does not dictate the politics of the nation, it does limit the debate and the power of governing actors.[12]

 

The last pillar came in the form of the seeking the integration of nation states. Although post-nationalism can be explained by Alexander Wendt’s Why a World State is Inevitable, albeit at the global level, I assert that his perspective is still valid as it can easily be applied to the regional level. He claims that the if sovereignty is scarified on the altar of transnationalism, it will not result in the absolute eradication of the particularism of identity, but it would result in the loss of negative freedom of engaging in unilateral violence, but enjoy the positive freedom of being subjectively recognized.[13] This would indicate the power of liberalism to prevent secession by offering a stronger brand cosmopolitan that would come to tame the decision of nation states willing to risk the freedom of geopolitical anarchy.

 

Although these three pillars saw the establishment of the Liberal World Order, spearheaded by the United States, it was expressed differently within the European civilization during the aftermath of the Second World War and yet came to act as the geopolitical prototype for global American-styled governance.

 

The European Dream

 

It was the aftereffects of Nazi Germany’s quest for European hegemony that inspired the implementation of Kantian-thought, as an underlying inspiration for the construction of the transnational organization known as the European Union.

 

It began with the signing of the 1958 Treaty of Rome by Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands that provided the basis of what would evolve into the European Economic Community (EEC) and the Common Market. This stage saw the donning of the Golden Straightjacket by these signatories, which saw the integration of economic systems via the elimination of common tariffs, along with the adopting of free movement of people and thereby labour. This process of standardization also saw the acceleration of standard of living and closer relations between member states.[14] Once this was achieved, the construction of the second and third pillars of post-nationalism and political quickly followed. This former began with the 1961 ‘Fouchet Plan’, which proposed the creation of European political union governed by a Council of Heads-of-State and a Commission that was composed by foreign affairs officials and a European Parliament.[15]

 

By the 1990s the path of European unionism was consolidated by the signing of the Maastricht Treaty, which sought ever-closer economic integration and the establishment of the Euro currency.[16] This was followed by the Schengen Convention, which saw the abolition of border and visa controls and allowed European citizens to travel, work and live anywhere among the Member States of the European Union.[17] The final stage of liberalism came with the Lisbon Treaty that sought to modernize and define the objectives of the EU on peace, democracy, human rights, justice, equality and rule of law. This further allowed the EU’s ability to influence the domestic policies of Member States.[18]

 

It appears that the European Union came to vindicate Kant’s vision by applying the three pillars of liberalism. According to World Bank statistics, the European collective has experienced an almost uninterrupted rise of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), steadily rising from 358.941 Billion in 1960 to 19.1 Trillion by 2008. [19] EU Employment began 52.5% in 1991 to 52.8% in 2017.[20] Life expectancy has steadily increased from 69 years old to 80 years of age in 2016.[21] These positive trends are reflected by Eurostate’s 1989 Eurobarometer No. 32 Report, even at the early days of the post-Cold War period saw 52% the community of citizens supported the benefits of the Single Market, such as the free movement of people, good and property.[22] This trend had also contributed to the erosion of nationalism, as the data between the timeframe of 1989-2004 revealed a trend of Euro-citizens preferring transnational governance over their own respective national governments. For example, in 1990 had 35% preferring decisions being made at the national level, with 56% as wishing for their democratic wishes to be conducted jointly at the European level. By the year 2000, statistics showed national governance drop to 36% and Europeanism rise to 59%. This trend continued and by 2004, national governance fell to 32% and the European Union increased to 63%. I submit that these figures indicate that a liberalism has acted as a benevolent force and made a strong argument for the success of post-nationalist liberalism.

 

However, the data showed a brief dip between the 2007-2009 period and a later recovery. This implies that the economic success and well-being that a liberalized Europe provides are not sufficient enough to starve-off the eventual populist counter-revolution. I assert that the dip in data proved to be unrecoverable for the European Project due to the behaviour and politics that the European Union dictated towards its own Member States. It was during this period that the people of Europe came to the realization that they were not living according to the rule of liberalism, but under the rule of an authoritarian or disciplinary-styled liberalism. It was this growing realisation and consequent resentment that planted the seeds for the later populist-nationalist rebellion.

 

 

The Transformation of the European Union 

 

Although the European Union had begun with the best of intentions, and initially proved to be a success, I submit that it was when it first encountered a major crisis in the form of the 2008 Eurozone Crisis it invited that disillusionment with Europeanism. These concerns were compounded by the 2011 Migration Crisis, which saw the mass influx of the Middle Eastern populace into Europe and the increase of Islamic terror attacks that saw to the revelation of the undercurrent of authoritarianism that resided within the European project.

 

The Eurozone Crisis 

 

When the 2008 Global Financial Crisis came to affect the entire world order, due to the interdependent nature of liberalism, the feasibility of the highly integrated system of European unionism came to be called into question. The legitimacy of global finance and liberal economics was scrutinized and its shortcomings proved to be the catalyst of the rise of neo-nationalism.

 

The Eurozone problems was initially viewed as a case of isolated crisis and thus was vulnerable to contagion to the point of a liberal Europe became called into question if Member States did not assist those nations enduring economic hardship. As explained by Roderick Macdonald Eurocritical, although a number of Member States entered into an economic crisis during the global financial crisis of 2007-2010, not all were affected in the same way as some required outside help, while others experienced relative little economic damage.[23] In keeping to its liberal ethos, events dictated that richer countries had to provide the funds for those in crisis.[24] This economic interventionism was accompanied with the tightening of the neoliberal Golden Straightjacket via the means of austerity. I submit that it was this development led to a trickle-down effect of undermining national sovereignty and the power of democracy.

 

As reported by 2013 the Oxfam Greece Case Study, the Greek state had a poorly organized fiscal system, defective social services and the lack of political willpower for reform that predated the crisis.[25] When the crisis occurred, the PASOK government agree to accept the imposed reforms, which allowed the nation to avoid defaulting on its debts and thus bankruptcy: the cutting and freezing public sector salaries until 2014, a 26.4 % reduction of pensions and the rise of the retirement age to 67 years and 10% raising of VAT across all categories.[26] By 2010, the various reforms were launched: bank bonuses and financial services was taxed up to 90%, cash payments more than $1500 were prohibited to limit fraud and those who informed the authorities or tax cheats were rewarded with a 10% of the amount recovered and households with more than $100,000 annual income would pay the top-rate of 45%.[27] The impact of such austerity saw unemployment rise and the consequence of the household disposable income decrease by 12.3%. This trend of unemployment grew, to the point that Greece became the greatest harbourer of unemployment within the entire EU, peaking between 2012-2013 at 27.2%.[28] Furthermore, by 2011 Greece produced the highest risk of poverty or social exclusion in the Eurozone with Greece being the only member not to have basic social assistance or a safety net of last resort. The suicide rate increased from 377 in 2010 to 477 in 2011, along with the increase of over one million of 18-60 year olds living in households with no income.[29] And finally, homelessness increased 25% since 2009, now numbering 20,000 people.[30]

 

The Disciplinary Nature of Liberalism 

 

As explained by Dr Paul Craig Roberts, the true nature of the European Union was exposed during the Eurozone Crisis by its reaction towards those Member States that resisted their austerity program. For instance, in 2011 when Silvio Berlusconi refused to accept the austerity measures, he was dismissed from this post as Italian Prime Minister by the European Commission and was replaced by former member of Goldman Sachs Board of International Advisors Mario Monti. Once in power, Monti built a ‘technocratic cabinet’ that did not include a single democratic elected politician. Furthermore, Monti was also appointed minister of economics and finance, thus ensuring the EU goal of imposing austerity upon Italian Republic.[31]

 

However, it was the cradle of democracy of Greece, which truly exposed the falsehood of the existence of a liberal Europe. During the initially states of accepting the abovementioned austerity package, the Greek populace rebelled. When Prime Minister George Papandreou decided to pacify events by offering a referendum to decide if the Greek government should accept the austerity measures, he was pressured to resign by the Euro-transnationalists and thus the measures were implemented. However, the dissent did not dissipate with time as the Greeks maintained their rage and went to on to elect the anti-establishment SYRIZA into government. Once in power, the new government announced that the referendum to decide if Greece should officially accept the EU propositions and even to remain within the Euro currency. This saw the referendum result of 60% to 40%, rejecting the neoliberal agenda.[32] By possessing such an absolutist worldview, during the negotiations, the European Establishment sought to uphold the TINA principle and rejected any alternative proposal. For instance, when the Greek government repeatedly offered a progressive tax program that was to achieve some of the budget surplus that was demanded, the Europhiles rejected this idea by arguing that the higher taxes on the rich could slow growth. Eventually, the Greeks had to not only support the proposal that they initially rejected, but was blocked from implementing any future policies that the Europhiles disapproved of.[33] It was during these marathon-like negotiations that the EU revealed its true totalitarian nature, with the finance ministers of Finland and Slovenia reported to hector and shame PM Tsipras into submission.[34] I would assert that with the fear of Greek succession pacified, the Eurozone reasserted its belief that it could achieve the utopian end of history upon the European continent, ironically by destroying the very concept of liberal-democracy.

 

The Migration Crisis 

 

It was not long after the relative recovery from the Eurozone Crisis that the European Union has challenged yet again in the form of the 2015 Middle Eastern Migrant Crisis. By keeping to its liberal ethos, the EU responded by projecting its humanitarianism upon the incoming mass migrants. This situation has produced a schizophrenic response by member states becoming split over who should bear the responsibility for the new arrival, with some seeking a collective European response, while others prioritizing their national interest over European solidarity.[35] I submit that it was this schism that resulted in yet another authoritarian response that led to further strengthening the populist rebellion.

 

During the initial stages of this crisis the EU was operating under its 2005 Common European Asylum System (CEAS), which dictated that all Member States must protect the rights of asylum seekers and refugees.[36] However, due to the strains that the mass number of people put on the nations that were considered ‘first-point-of-entry’, most notably Italy and Greece, the European Union altered its legislation. In the face of mass burden and discontent that resonated from these already economically-strained nations, the EU later proposed the European Agenda on Migration that sought to trigger Article 78(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union in order to relocate 40,000 asylum seekers via mandatory quotas upon other Member States.[37] Although this may have upheld the humanitarian intentions of liberalism, it achieved the unintended consequence of cultural clashes and increased the security risk of terror attacks.

It appears that these concerns were not unfounded as the European continent has experienced many terrorist attacks since in influx of migration. This has been reflected by the many reports of Islamic terror attacks that have occurred across the Member States: the 2015 Copenhagen shootings and France experiencing numerous attacks like the Nice Stabbing and the November 2015 Paris attacks.[38][39] The following year saw the Brussels bombings[40] and most recently, there have been the 2018 Paris knife attack.[41] This period of terror attacks has had profound impact upon the 2016 public opinion of the liberalism’s ability to handle immigration and security, by showing a sharp increase of concern:[42]

Furthermore, the vast increase of immigration has also seen to a decrease of the support of cosmopolitanism and thus a susceptibility towards cultural conservativism[43]: It was this combination that saw a dramatic drop in confidence within the European ability to handle the refugee crisis itself [44]: It is my contention that it was the combination of these two crises that began the erosion of the legitimacy of the concept of a liberalized Europe. Although it was the Eurozone crisis that planted the seeds of rebellion among the Mediterranean member states, it was the migration influx and the accompanied terror attacks that saw the people of the more committed members of the EU, specially the Euro-partners of France and Germany, to join in the rebellion and thus the creation of a transnational counter-revolution of populist-nationalism, across the core and periphery, came into being.

 

Political Consensus 

 

It was during the period of crises that exposed the disconnect, not only from the nation states and the transnational entity, but also from the citizenry and their own domestic political class. The former is a consequence from the nature of transnationalism. As explained by Susan Strange, who wrote in The Retreat of the State, that political authority has shifted from nation states to both intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations. Therefore, heads of governments have lost their power and can no longer offer solutions to their citizenry. As seen above in the case of Euro nations, although politicians, both in government and opposition parties, may act in support from the national interest that they no longer believe the power of the nation state.  In other words, I agree with Strange is that national sovereignty and democratic elections has been reduced to nothing more than a courteous pretence.[45]

 

It was during the stages of hardship that it became realized that the European Union had not been true to its ideological foundations by not implementing its three pillars of liberalism of ignoring the concepts of government accountability and democracy. I assert that by dismissing the economic blight brought on by their economic policies, failing to protect its citizens, condemning the people for their legitimate concerns, removing democratically elected national leaders to ensure the continuation of the political consensus and sacrificing the cultures of member states for a transnational cosmopolitan culture, the backlash of the rise of neo-nationalism was a predictable geopolitical outcome.

 

The authoritarian nature of the European Union has been reflected within the writings of White Paper on the Future of Europe, where it acknowledged the rising discontent among the European people and the EU had fell short of expectations with the economic breakdown, refugee crisis and the Britain voting to leave the Union.[46] It acknowledged the insecurity felt by the many people that has seen to the rise of populism and nationalism. However, it quickly found confront that that more that 80% supports the EU’s four founding freedoms and 70% supported the Euro common currency.[47] It went on to state the EU must to keep to the motto ‘unity in diversity’ and that the march towards European integration will continue. Furthermore, it went on to predict five possible 2025 scenarios that would see the European project will continue into the future: a reform agenda that would see the incremental increase of Europeanism of the single currency and increased counter-terrorism[48], an increased strengthening of the single market[49], Member States want to do more and form ‘coalitions of the willing’ to work on specific policy areas such as defence or social matters[50], the EU would see to its Members focus its attention and limited resources on a reduced number of areas and enforce collective decision and finally, the integration of the Member States will decide to share more power, resources and decision making.[51] I would assert that despite acknowledging the rise of discontent towards the EU , the European establishment shows no sign of reform as all future predictions show no role of the nation state or nationalism.

 

The Return of the Old World?

 

It was the creation of a class of a terrorized, disfranchised, disillusioned and economically downtrodden European people that saw the rise of the populist-nationalist movement. However, unlike liberalism, which saw the many different Euro-nations co-ordinated their power, the counter-movement has developed across the European Union despite their individual political, cultural and historical uniqueness.

 

The Counter-Revolution of Euroskepticism 

 

Although the populist neo-nationalism is a worldwide phenomenon, its European variant has become known as ‘Euroskepticism’ and has come to dominate European politics and challenged the European political establishment.

 

This counter-revolution was spearheaded by Britain’s United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), which saw populist discontent achieved a political breakthrough by winning the 2014 European Election. This victory marked the first time in modern history that a third party beat both Labour and the Conservatives and win a nationally contested election.[52]This momentum was carried into the 2015 British National Election that saw the Eurosceptic party win 12.9% of the national vote.[53] However, it was realizing their raison d’etre that by winning the 2016 Brexit Referendum by 51-48% and thus saw Euroskepticism spread across the Union.[54] For example, the radical right has seen the Finns Party become the second-largest party in the Finnish parliament and the Swedish Democrats are the third-largest party in parliament, Hungary’s PM Viktor Orban experience mass support, France saw the National Front reach the Final Ballot of the 2017 Election and even the Germany’s Alternative of Germany beat Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union into second place in her own region.[55] The counter radical left, saw the Spanish Podemos win 69 out of 350 seats of parliament and the above-mentioned SYRIZA into governance.[56] Even France has shown a steep rise in Euroscepticism, despite fending off the election of the National Front. Although President Macon is a committed Europhile, he has recently admitted in 2018 BBC interview that the French people were also disenchanted with liberalism and, if presented with a referendum of EU withdrawal would likely to have voted for a ‘Frexit’.[57]

 

As explained by Wolfgang Streeck’s The Return of the Repressed, where the populace had returned to the voting booth, after decades of feeling disregarded, showed support for new kinds of parties and movements whose characteristics threw the entire political system into disarray. With the liberal consensus being so embedded into the machinery of the state, it regarded the new parties are a ‘lethal threat’ to democracy.[58] This threat is due to the success of populism, which is the classical idea that a population unities itself in political combat against an elitist minority that is suppressing the ‘ordinary people’.[59] It is characterized by a people demanding ‘simple solutions’ because they cannot understand the complexity of the modern world and their cynical representatives promising the very ‘simple solutions’ that they crave, even though they know there are no true alternatives to the complex solutions of the elites.[60] It is these tendencies that have led to the conclusion that the populist-nationalist wave of Euroscepticism that has consumed the current affairs is the same wave that consumed Europe during the twentieth century.

 

The Return of Authoritarianism?

 

In reaction to the populist-nationalist backlash has been the development of the perception that the world is now repeating the mistakes of the twentieth century, which saw the simultaneous rise of tyrannical governments across the world, regardless of their uniqueness, in the form of the Soviet Union, Fascist Italy, Nazi Germany and Communist China. This belief is due to the historical precedent that allowed the democratic rise of the non-partisan ideology of fascism, that saw the destruction of the liberalism of their domestic governments by the very same type of low-educated, ethno-nationalist, economic collectivist society that rejected the liberalism of modern Europe.

 

The historical linkages of fascism and Euroscepticism has been explained by Prebble Ramswell The Concept of Millennial Fascism, who stated that the success of groups that envision a Europe that embraces the European identity without the loss of economic and political sovereignty is an evolved form of fascism. Essentially, it is believed that fascism, like Euroscepticism, was influenced by the left-right politics, conservative and anti-conservative, national and supranational, rational and anti-national. Furthermore, with nationalism is considered the prime foundation of fascism and Euroscepticism, and views that the nation as the ‘single organic entity which binds people together by their ancestry and is a natural unifying force of people. And it is the belief that the two ideologies seek to solve economic, political and social problems via national rebirth.[61]

 

The Return of Liberalism? 

 

Although the abovementioned argument is a possible outcome, I strongly disagree with this interpretation of what the populist counter-revolution has come to represent. It is my contention that the Eurosceptic movement is actually a rebellion against the authoritarianism of the European Superstate by demanding the reestablishment of classical liberalism.

 

The idea of liberalism being enacted via the realist framework of nationalism may appear to controversial within mainstream IR thought, but upon further scrutiny, the idea of liberal-realism is quite a conventional notion. As explained by E. van de Haar, classical liberalism is a ‘bottom up’ which regards international relations as an outgrowth of politics in the national political arena.[62] Furthermore, there are six core elements that characterize such liberalism: individualism, freedom, natural law, order, rule of law and limited state.[63] In regard to the relationship between liberalism and the state, Haar states that it was the role of government to protect its society from violence and invasion of other states, protecting members of society from injustice or oppression and private property and maintain public works and institutions. Most importantly, the government is not to create equality among people but to ensure equality of opportunity.[64] I would surmise that this indicates that liberalism can rest comfortably within the idea of realism. Therefore, the idea of the populist movement championing liberalism is not such an abstract notion.

 

Upon reflecting on the notions of the populist movement, which was born out of the resentment of the failure of liberalism, I assert that by coming to power via the liberal concept of democracy and advocating the ideas of classical liberalism of national sovereignty, democracy and economic capitalism, I assert that counter-revolution can mean the true liberalization of Europe.

 

Conclusion

 

In conclusion, the end of the current European order is actually a positive outcome for world affairs. It has only been the misconception that the EU has been operating under the banner of liberalism that has spurred the fear of a return of fascism that has produced a misconstrued perception of world affairs. The rise of the realist wave of populist-nationalism is actually the peoples of Europe asserting their belief in liberalism. Therefore, once the current transitionary interregnum is concluded the European continent can once again be at peace with itself once again by allowing the particulars of the European people to dictate their destiny once again.

 

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